On the Flow of Atlantic Water Towards the Arctic Ocean; a Synergy Between Altimetry and Hydrography.

Abstract:

The Arctic climate is strongly influenced by the inflow of warm Atlantic water conveyed by the Norwegian Atlantic Slope Current (NwASC); the main heat conveyor into the Arctic Ocean. Based on sea surface height (SSH) data from altimetry, we develop a dynamical measure of the NwASC transport to diagnose its spatio-temporal variability. This supports a dynamical division of the NwASC into two flow regimes; the Svinøy Branch (SvB) in the Norwegian Sea, and the Fram Strait Branch (FSB) west of Spitsbergen. The SvB transport is well correlated with the SSH and atmospheric variability within the Nordic Seas, factors that also affect the inflow to the Barents Sea. In contrast, the FSB is regulated by regional atmospheric patterns around Svalbard and northern Barents Sea. We further relate anomalous flow events to temperature fluctuations of Atlantic water. A warm anomaly is found to propagate northwards, with a tendency to amplify enroute, after events of strong flow in the Norwegian Sea. A roughly 12-months delayed temperature signal is identified in the FSB. This suggests that hydrographic anomalies both upstream from the North Atlantic, and locally generated in the Norwegian Sea, are important for the oceanic heat and salt transport that eventually enters into the Arctic. We believe that the combination of the flow from altimetry and temperature fluctuations in the Nordic Seas can be used to qualitatively predict warm anomalies towards the Arctic Ocean, which could be a valuable addition to the forecast skill of the statistical Arctic sea-ice models.