Forest-Water Feedbacks Under a Changing Climate

Abstract:

Among the most valuable products produced by forests are the ecosystem services of safe and reliable water supplies. The provision of these ecosystem services on forested landscapes is inherently linked to forest condition. Climate change and associated hydrological intensification may affect forest water use (green water) and runoff generation (blue water) in the temperate forest biome of eastern North America. For the time period from the 1980s to present, a period with significant climate warming, we used a network of long-term catchment study sites nested within the temperate forest biome to explore forest-water feedbacks in response to climate change. Satellite remote sensing was used to track changes in forest phenology and forest productivity, and catchment meteorological and discharge records were used to track changes in the magnitude and timing of forest water yields. Forest responses to climate change varied along a latitudinal gradient. The magnitude of annual water yields declined at all study sites. The timing of peak discharge was measured by the center of mass (i.e., 50^th percentile), and the narrowing or widening of discharge periods was measured by the coefficient of dispersion (i.e., 75^th – 25^th over 50^th percentile) of water yield. For the vernal window, we observed subtle and systematic changes with a shift to later peaks in the center of mass of spring discharge and a widening of the spring discharge period (i.e., less peaked flows). For the autumnal window, we observed less subtle, non-systematic changes with a shift to later peaks above 45 degrees latitude but earlier peaks below 45 degrees latitude, and a narrowing of the fall discharge period (i.e., more peaked flows). The time shift and widening of vernal and autumnal windows are likely caused by asymmetric responses of forest water use (green water) and runoff generation (blue water) to climate warming. These disruptions in forest-water coupling are likely to have significant implications for downstream water supplies.