Political Shifts and Forest Transitions: A Review and Theoretical Framework for Future Research

Abstract:

Most armed conflicts in recent history have occurred in biodiversity hotspots. Yet, studies examining impacts of warfare on forests yield contradictory results making it difficult to decipher trends and patterns. This study provides a theoretical framework that can be used to clarify hypothetical relationships between conflict and forest transitions, contributing to our ability to push forward a growing field of research on environmental change and conflict. Landsat TM and ETM+ satellite data were analyzed to examine forest transitions in Rwanda during a conflict and post conflict period. Net trends showed little difference between periods, with a rate of 1.6% annual gain in forest cover during conflict years, and 2.5% after the conflict. Further investigation revealed spatially concentrated forest loss during conflict years; 96% of forest loss occurred in protected areas with the most loss in Gishwati Forest Reserve at a rate of 6.1%. Trends were explored using spatially explicit conflict data that distinguished armed conflict activity from conflict induced settlements. Impacts of conflict on forests in Rwanda appear to be influenced by natural resource use near settlements. Massive migrations of people into settlements during the conflict, who had previously been scattered across the landscape, likely resulted in a redistribution of pressures. Reduced pressure elsewhere supports this inference. Results underscore the vulnerability of protected areas and the spatial dynamics of forest resource dependence during conflicts. This work demonstrates the value of distinguishing conflict activities to assess their varied environmental effects, and contributes to our theoretical development of environmental change and conflict.