PA53B-01
The Value of Information from a GRACE-Enhanced Drought Severity Index
Friday, 18 December 2015: 13:40
103 (Moscone South)
Yusuke Kuwayama1, Richard Bernknopf2, David Brookshire2, Molly Macauley1, Benjamin F Zaitchik3, Matthew Rodell4, Peter Vail1 and Alexandra Thompson1, (1)Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, United States, (2)University of New Mexico Main Campus, Albuquerque, NM, United States, (3)Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States, (4)NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Abstract:
In this project, we develop a framework to estimate the economic value of information from the Gravity and Climate Experiment (GRACE) for drought monitoring and to understand how the GRACE Data Assimilation (GRACE-DA) system can inform decision making to improve regional economic outcomes. Specifically, we consider the potential societal value of further incorporating GRACE-DA information into the U.S. Drought Monitor mapmaking process. Research activities include (a) a literature review, (b) a series of listening sessions with experts and stakeholders, (c) the development of a conceptual economic framework based on a Bayesian updating procedure, and (d) an econometric analysis and retrospective case study to understand the GRACE-DA contribution to agricultural policy and production decisions. Taken together, the results from these research activities support our conclusion that GRACE-DA has the potential to lower the variance associated with our understanding of drought and that this improved understanding has the potential to change policy decisions that lead to tangible societal benefits.
