Global Warming 'Pause' - Oceans Reshuffle Heat

Abstract:

Despite the fact that greenhouse gases are still increasing and all other indicators show warming-related change (+0.0064 °C/year since 1880 or +0.0077 °C/year during 1993-2002), surface temperatures stopped climbing steadily during the past decade at a rate of +0.0010 °C/year from 2003 to 2012. We show that in recent years, the heat was being trapped in the subsurface waters of the western Pacific and eastern Indian oceans between 100 and 300 m. The movement of warm Pacific water below the surface, also related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation climatic pattern, temporarily affected surface temperatures and accounted for the global cooling trend in surface temperature. With the Pacific Decadal Oscillation possibly changing to a warm phase, it is likely that the oceans will drive a major surge in global surface warming sometime in the next decade or two.

Reference: Nieves, V., Willis, J. K., and Patzert, W. C. (2015). Recent hiatus caused by decadal shift in Indo-Pacific heating. Science, aaa4521.