Developing a Climate Service: Using Hydroclimate Monitoring and Forecasting to Aid Decision Making in Africa and Latin America

Abstract:

Hydrological and water scarcity predictions have the potential to provide vital information for a variety of needs including water resources management, agricultural and urban water supply, and flood mitigation. In particular, seasonal forecasts of drought risk can enable farmers to make adaptive choices on crop varieties, labor usage, and technology investments. Forecast skill is generally derived from teleconnections with ocean variability specifically sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and, equally important persistence in the state of the land in terms of soil moisture, snowpack, or streamflow conditions. Short term precipitation forecasts are critical in flood prediction by extending flood prediction lead times beyond the basin travel time, and thus allows for extended warnings. The Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) is a UN-wide initiative in which WMO Members and inter- and non- governmental, regional, national and local stakeholders work in partnership to develop targeted climate services. Thus, GFCS offers the potential for hydroclimatologists to develop products (hydroclimatic forecasts) and information services (i.e. product dissemination) to users with the expectation that GFCS will increase the resilience of the society to weather and climate events and to reduce operational costs for economic sectors and regions dependent on water.

This presentation will discuss the development of a nascent climate service system focused on hydroclimatic monitoring and forecasting, and initially developed by the authors for Africa and Latin America. Central to this system is the use of satellite remote sensing and hydroclimate forecasts (from days to seasons) in the development of weather and climate information useful for water management in sectors such as flood protection (precipitation and streamflow forecasting) and agriculture (drought and crop forecasting). The elements of this system will be discussed, including the challenges of monitoring and forecast skill and the effective delivery of the information to decision makers.