Building a Permafrost Forecasting System

Abstract:

Permafrost regions are changing rapidly, with even greater changes and potential infrastructure damage projected in coming decades. The Permafrost Forecasting System (PFS) will supply one-year-ahead, seasonal forecasts of Active Layer Thickness (ALT) and permafrost temperature for the state of Alaska to Federal, state, and local stakeholders. The PFS would consist of satellite and in situ data merged with NOAA seasonal forecasts to drive a permafrost forecast model using data assimilation. Measures of skill based upon existing observation networks such as the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) program would allow critical tests of utility. Many of the required components exist, but require development and integration to create the end-to-end flow of data and products required for the PFS. Advanced permafrost models realistically simulate permafrost dynamics but lack the assimilation tools to link model, observations and NOAA seasonal forecasts. Here we describe the components of the PFS, the physical and organizational infrastructure to support it, and a basic implementation strategy consistent with available state and Federal resources. Such a system could prove useful in other countries with significant permafrost.