Projections of Horizontal Water Vapor Transport across Europe

Abstract:

With a warming Earth’s atmosphere, the global water cycle is expected to intensify, a process that is likely to yield changes in the frequency and intensity of hydrological extremes. To quantify such changes over Europe, most previous research has been based upon precipitation scenarios. However, seldom has the horizontal water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport IVT) been investigated, a key variable responsible for heavy precipitation events and one that links water source and sink regions. It is hence the aim of this study to assess the projections of IVT across Europe.

The Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) is the source of the climate model projections. The historical simulations (1979–2005) and two emissions scenarios (2073–2099), or representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from 22 global circulation models were retrieved and evaluated. In particular, at model grid points across Europe the mean, standard deviation, and the 95^th percentile of IVT were calculated for December, January, and February (Boreal winter); and for June, July, and August (Austral winter).

The CMIP5 historical multi-model mean closely resembles the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis. In the future under the two emissions scenarios, the IVT increases in magnitude, with the highest percentage changes occurring in the extreme emissions (RCP8.5) scenario; for example, multi-model mean IVT increases of 30% are found in the domain. An evaluation of the low-altitude moisture and winds indicates that higher atmospheric water vapor content is the primary cause of these projected changes.