What an Arctic terrestrial MIP tells about changes and differences in Arctic subsurface hydrology

Abstract:

The spatial and temporal characteristics of Arctic hydrology have been investigated in the GTMIP activity (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/gtmip/gtmip.html), conducted as a part of GRENE Arctic Climate Change Project in Japan. The activity has two stages, one on local and the other on the circum-Arctic scales. Stage 1 is site simulations for the period of 1980-2013 for four Arctic observation sites, i.e., Fairbanks/AK, Kevo/Finland, Yakutsuk and Tiksi in Siberia, focusing on process evaluations with observation. Stage 2 is pan-arctic simulations for 1850-2100 with 0.5x0.5 degree resolution, targeting at the responses of Arctic terrestrial to global climate change. At both stages multiple terrestrial models have been participating (16+ for Stage 1; 10 for Stage 2), ranging from physically-oriented process models to biogeochemical models to ESM-compatible ecosystem models. The results are delineating a) spatial variations and temporal changes in subsurface thermal and hydrological states, and subsequently the ecosystem in different climatic/ecosystem zones (e.g., Kevo is underlain by seasonally frozen ground while others by permafrost; Tiksi is in tundra whole others in taiga; these two sites are Arctic while the other two sub-Arctic), and b) the differences and similarities in the reproducibility among models with respect to the target of the models (e.g., physical, or biogeochemical) and to the complexity of implemented processes.