Was there a hiatus in the rise of global mean surface temperatures and is it over?

Abstract:

Every decade since the 1960s has been warmer than the one before, with 2000-2009 by far the warmest decade on record. However, the role of human-induced climate change has been discounted by some owing to a markedly reduced increase in global mean surface temperature from 1998 through 2013, known as the hiatus. The upward trend has resumed in 2014, now the warmest year on record, with 2015 temperatures on course for another record-hot year. Although the Earth’s climate is undoubtedly warming, this paper examines how weather-related and internal natural climate variability can temporarily overwhelm global warming in any given year or even decade, especially locally. Part of the perspective is from the standpoint of the energy budget of the planet and how that is changing. A key aspect is whether we can account for any anomalous heating by taking an inventory of the heat content of the planet, in particular ocean heat content. The vertical disposition of heat taken up by the ocean plays a key role in decadal variability.