Relationships Among Atmospheric Rivers, Tropical Moisture Exports, and Warm Conveyor Belts over the Northeast Pacific

Abstract:

Extreme precipitation and attendant floods annually result in ~80 fatalities and ~$5 Billion in damages across the U.S. and account for ~50% of annual average U.S. natural disaster losses. The mechanisms that produce extreme precipitation are well known and are relatively well simulated by modern numerical weather prediction models in conjunction with synoptic-scale and mesoscale lift, instability, moisture, and boundaries. The focus of this presentation is on moisture in the form of synoptic-scale water vapor transport and its role in extreme precipitation along the U.S. West Coast.

Many different terms have been used to describe synoptic-scale water vapor transport over the Northeast Pacific, including: moisture conveyor belts, warm conveyor belts, tropical moisture exports, tropical plumes, moisture plumes, pineapple express events, and atmospheric rivers. Each term respectively attempts to quantify or represent the propagation or instantaneous movement of water vapor from the Lagrangian and Eulerian frameworks in which they exist. These differences in frameworks often makes comparing and contrasting, for example, warm conveyor belts and atmospheric rivers difficult and may lead to misguided interpretations of long-range trans-oceanic water vapor transport.

The purpose of this presentation is to discuss the dynamics of water vapor transport over the Northeast Pacific from the Eulerian and Lagrangian frameworks and illustrate to what degree the two- and three-dimensional structures of these rivers, exports, and belts overlap. Illustration of overlap between these processes will be shown via case study analysis of synoptic-scale water vapor transport over the Northeast Pacific that led to heavy precipitation along the U.S. West Coast during February 2014 and February 2015.