iCRESLIDE: Integration of Coupled Routing and Excess Storage and SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium for the Cascading Hydrologic-Geotechnical Modeling

Abstract:

Floods and landslides account for the large number of natural hazards and affect more people than many other types of natural disasters around the world. This study proposed a coupled hydrological-geotechnical model iCRESLIDE (Integration of Coupled Routing and Excess Storage and SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium). The iCRESLIDE is designed to remedy the discrepancy of the original landslide model (SLIDE) by coupling with a hydrological model (CREST) and building an integrated system for predicting cascading storm-flood-landslides using remote sensing and geospatial datasets. This coupled system is implemented and evaluated in Macon County, North Carolina, where Hurricane Ivan triggered widespread landslides in September 2004 during the hurricane season. Model simulations from iCRESLIDE show its reliability to predict landslides occurrence (location and time). Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis demonstrate that the iCRESLIDE has higher global accuracy (0.750) and higher sensitivity (11.36%) compared to the original SLIDE model. Such improved predictive performance demonstrates the advantage of coupling hydrological-geotechnical models, which calls more attentions and deserves further investigations in order to develop a not only geotechnical sound but also hydrological sensitive system for landslides early warning at regional scale. This talk will also present early results of the NFL (National-Flash-Landslide) Monitoring and Prediction system under development at the NOAA/OU National Weather Center.