WHAT IS SWANSON’S LAW & WHY SHOULD YOU CARE?

Abstract:

For 40 years the cost of Solar Photovoltaics (PV) has decreased by a factor of 2 for every 10X increase in its cumulative-installed electric-generating capacity (CC). The straight line, log-log, experimental and historical data fit of cost versus CC is called Swanson’s Law for its accurate fit of the rapid decrease in cost over 6 orders of magnitude increase in CC with time. Now Solar PV is cost competitive with coal and natural gas in some regions and provides 1% of the world’s electric generating capacity. The Law can next be tested to predict the future. With 2 more orders of magnitude increase in CC, Solar PV could provide 10% and then 100% of the world’s current electric capacity, as the Law projects costs falling by another factor of 4. For the last 10 years CC has doubled every 2 years under strong public policy support. If this doubling and policy support are extended, an order-of-magnitude increase (10X) will occur every 6.6 yrs and installed solar PV capacity could reach 100% of the current world’s consumption in 13 years or by 2028.

The world’s solar resource, accessible indefinitely and yearly to PV, is over 1000 times current consumption while coal, uranium, petroleum and natural gas are finite, limited resources, destined to be depleted within our lifetimes or the lives of our children or grandchildren.

In 2015 a 56 MW fossil fueled power plant was shut down at Stanford University and replaced with Solar PV and geothermal to save money and eliminate greenhouse gas emissions. If more such shut downs could follow this same 2 year doubling time as Solar PV, then the replacements could exceed 14,000 within 26 years or by 2041, including all 7000 current coal-fired plants plus an equivalent number fueled by uranium, petroleum and natural gas. These shut-downs, including all current fossil-fueled-power plants, could start reversing the human-generated, greenhouse-gas-induced, global climate changes by 2041.