Driving forces in energy-related CO2 emissions in south and east coastal China: commonality and variations

Abstract:

East and south coastal China contributes to respectively about 30% and 8% of CO₂ emissions in China and the world, and therefore play a critical role in achieving the national goal of emission reduction to mitigate the global warming. It also serves as a benchmark for the less developed regions of China, in terms of achieving the developed world's human development standard under lower per capita emissions. We analyze the driving forces of emissions in this region and their provincial characteristics by applying the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method. Our findings show that emissions have been doubled during the period from 2000 to 2012, along with three and two folds increase in economy and energy consumption, respectively. This suggests a persistent lock between economic growth and emissions, even in this socioeconomically advanced region in China. Provincial difference in annual emission growth reveals three distinguished low-carbon developmental stages, owning mainly to the effectiveness of energy efficiency in reducing emission growth. This may explain why previous climate policies have aimed to reduce carbon intensity. These results indicate that targeted measures on enhancing energy efficiency in the short term and de-carbonization of both the economic and energy structure in the long term can lower the emission growth more effectively and efficiently. They also suggest that factor-driven emission reduction strategies and policies are needed in the geographically and socioeconomically similar regions.