Recent Decrease in Typhoon Destructive Potential and Global Warming Implications

Abstract:

Despite the severe impact of individual tropical cyclones like Sandy (2012) and Haiyan (2013), global TC activities as a whole have actually dropped considerably since the early 1990’s. Especially over the most active and hazardous TC basin on earth, the Western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon Main Development Region (MDR), an evident decrease in TC activity has been observed, as characterised by the drop in the annual Power Dissipation Index (Emanuel 2005). Paradoxically, this decrease occurred despite evident ocean warming, with upper ocean heat content increased by ~ 12% over the western North Pacific MDR (Pun et al. 2013; Lin et al. 2014). This study explores the interesting interplay between atmosphere and ocean on the WNP typhoons. Though ocean may become more favourable (warming) to fuel individual typhoon event through temporal relaxation in the atmosphere condition (e.g. Haiyan in 2013), the overall ‘worsened’ atmospheric condition (e.g. increase in vertical wind shear) can ‘over-powers’ the ‘better’ ocean to suppress the overall WNP typhoon activities. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling.