Heat stress and societal impacts in the 21st century

Abstract:

Heat is the number-one weather related killer in the US and around the world. As a result of rising temperatures and steady or slightly rising levels of specific humidity, heat stress is projected to become increasingly severe. Here we show that heat stress as measured by two common indices -- the heat index and the wet-bulb temperature -- is projected to rapidly and dramatically increase, and that by mid-century crippling summertime conditions are possible across some of the most densely populated regions of the planet. Many of these regions are places where cooling infrastructure is scarce, adaptive capacity is low, and populations are rapidly rising. We find that by the end of the 21st century, the habitability of some regions of the planet may be questionable due to heat stress alone, and in many other regions severe impacts to human health, infrastructure, agriculture, and economic performance will create significant societal stress and necessitate rapid adaptation.