Analysis of weather regime dependent wind biases over the east coast of China using 3 year WRF simulations

Abstract:

Reliable wind power resource estimates required by wind energy industry can be achieved by long term wind tower measurements or mesoscale model simulations. However, how to quantify and investigate the characteristics of wind bias of mesoscale modeling remain a challenge.Three-year simulations using WRF over the east coast of China have been conducted. A K-means cluster analysis is used to categorize the dominant weather regimes over this area.A systematic overestimate of wind speed over the coastal area is found during the daytime within the sea breeze dominant regime. Further analysis indicates that the positive bias is closely related to the strength of mixing within the boundary layer and land surface temperature bias. A typical sea breeze case is analyzed in terms of its evolution with a focus on the vertical and inland intrusion extent. A good simulation of local land sea breeze is critical for offshore and onshore wind farm design and operations over the east coast of China.