Increasing contrasts between wet and dry precipitation extremes during the “global warming hiatus” (1998-2013)

Abstract:

We investigate changes in daily precipitation extremes using TRMM data (1998–2013), which coincides with the so-called “global warming hiatus”. Results show a structural change in probability distribution functions (pdf) of local precipitation events (LPE) during this period, indicating more intense LPE, less moderate LPE, and more dry (no-rain) days globally. Analyses for land and ocean separately reveal more complex and nuanced changes over land, characterized by a strong positive trend (+12.0% per decade, 99% confidence level (c.l.)) in frequency of extreme LPE’s over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the wet season, but a negative global trend (-6.6% per decade, 95% c.l.) during the dry season. Analyses of the risk of drought based on the number of dry days show a significant global drying trend (3.2% per decade, 99% c.l.) over land during the dry season. Regions of pronounced increased drought include western and central US, northeastern Asia and southern Europe/Mediterranean. Trends in cloud distributions from TRMM VIS-IR, and relative humidity from reanalysis have also been examined. Overall, the changes in water cycle parameters are consistent with increasing contrasts between wet and dry precipitation extremes, as reported in previous studies based on observations and climate model projections for a longer period, implying changes in global water cycle was underway during 1998-2013 as if there is no “global warming hiatus”. The implications of the present results will be discussed.