The spectral details of observed and simulated short-term water vapor feedbacks of El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Abstract:

Radiative kernel method has been validated and widely used in the study of climate feedbacks. This study uses spectrally resolved longwave radiative kernels to examine the short-term water vapor feedbacks associated with the ENSO cycles. Using a 500-year GFDL CM3 and a 100-year NCAR CCSM4 pre-industry control simulation, we have constructed two sets of longwave spectral radiative kernels. We then composite El Niño, La Niña and ENSO-neutral states and estimate the water vapor feedbacks associated with the El Niño and La Niña phases of ENSO cycles in both simulations. Similar analysis is also applied to 35-year (1979-2014) ECMWF ERA-interim reanalysis data, which is deemed as observational results here. When modeled and observed broadband feedbacks are compared to each other, they show similar geographic patterns but with noticeable discrepancies in the contrast between the tropics and extra-tropics. Especially, in El Niño phase, the feedback estimated from reanalysis is much greater than those from the model simulations. Considering the observational data span, we carry out a sensitivity test to explore the variability of feedback-deriving using 35-year data. To do so, we calculate the water vapor feedback within every 35-year segment of the GFDL CM3 control run by two methods: one is to composite El Nino or La Nina phases as mentioned above and the other is to regressing the TOA flux perturbation caused by water vapor change (δR__H­2O) against the global-mean surface temperature a­­­­nomaly. We find that the short-term feedback strengths derived from composite method can change considerably from one segment to another segment, while the feedbacks by regression method are less sensitive to the choice of segment and their strengths are also much smaller than those from composite analysis. This study suggests that caution is warranted in order to infer long-term feedbacks from a few decades of observations. When spectral details of the global-mean feedbacks are examined, more inconsistencies can be revealed in many spectral bands, especially H₂O continuum absorption bands and window regions. These discrepancies can be attributed back to differences in observed and modeled water vapor profiles in responses to tropical SST.