Trend analysis of nutrient loadings in the South Saskatchewan River catchment

Abstract:

Nutrient loadings in river catchments have increased in the past years as a consequence of rapid expansion of agricultural areas, new urban developments and industries, and population growth. Nutrient enrichment of water bodies has intensified eutrophication conditions that degrade water quality and ecosystem health. In large-scale catchments, the assessment of temporal and spatial variability of nutrient loads imply challenges due to climate, land use and geology heterogeneity, and to anthropogenic changes. In this study we carried out a trend analysis of total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads in the South Saskatchewan River (SSR) catchment. This catchment is located in the Canadian Prairie Provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. The eastern and central areas of the catchment consist mostly of croplands, pasture lands and livestock farms, whereas the western parts are located on the Rocky Mountains that are the source of most of the catchment’s streamflows. The trend analysis was performed applying a novel approach to analyse nutrient time series recorded at long-term water quality stations along the main stems of the SSR river network. Since water quality is taken infrequently, in the proposed approach the time series were complemented using regression analysis methods based on streamflow data recorded at the nearest gauge stations. The time series were subsequently pre-whitened in order to remove the autocorrelation, and then subjected to non-parametric statistical test to detect trends. Seasonal analysis of trends at each of the water quality stations were performed in order to determine the relationships between annual flow regimes and nutrient loads in the catchment, in particular, the influence of the high spring runoff on nutrient export. Decadal analysis was also performed to determine the long-tern relationships of nutrients with anthropogenic changes in the catchment. In particular, the capacity of reservoirs to trap nutrients and the effects of the rapid changes in agricultural production in the prairies, represented by increases in crop production and livestock, were evaluated to analyse decadal changes of nutrient trends.