GC43A-1161
Future Changes in Rainfall Extremes Associated with El Nino Projected by a Global 20-km Mesh Atmospheric Model
Thursday, 17 December 2015
Poster Hall (Moscone South)
Akio Kitoh, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan and Hirokazu Endo, Meteorological Research Institute, Ibaraki, Japan
Abstract:
El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will still be the most dominant year-to-year variations of the future tropical climate system. A global high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with grid size about 20 km is used to project future changes in rainfall extremes associated with El Nino at the end of the 21st century. Four different spatial patterns in sea surface temperature (SST) changes are used as future boundary conditions based on the CMIP5 RCP8.5 scenario. Rainfall extremes such as the maximum 5-day precipitation total (Rx5d) over the western Pacific are positively correlated to the Nino3.4 SST anomalies. It is found that Rx5d regressed to the Nino3.4 SST will increase two times in the future compared to the present value. This implies drastic increase of risk of heavy-rainfall induced disasters under by global warming over the western Pacific countries.
