The use of a dense urban meteorological network to enable long term electricity consumption forecasting

Abstract:

High air temperatures have an impact on energy consumption, since the demand for cooling fans and air conditioning increases. With current climate projections indicating a general increase in air temperatures, as well as more frequent and intense heat waves, cooling energy demand will increase with time and should therefore be considered by industry and policy makers. Cooling degree days (CDD) are a standard approach used by energy industry to estimate cooling demand. The methodology compares ambient temperatures with a base value for air temperature considered representative of the city being analysed. However, due to the Urban Heat Island effect, temperature and energy consumption will vary considerably across a city. Hence, for CDD to be estimated across an urban area, air temperature data from dense urban networks are required. This study analysed air temperature data available from a dense urban meteorological network to estimate CDD and cooling needs across Birmingham-UK for summer 2013. From the results, it was possible to identify the potential role and limitations of urban meteorological networks in forecasting electricity demand within a city for future climate scenarios.