Utilising Geological Field Measurements and Historic Eruption Volumes to Estimate the Volume of Santorini’s Magma Chamber

Abstract:

An understanding of the amount of magma available to supply any given eruption is useful for determining the potential eruption magnitude and duration. Geodetic measurements and inversion techniques are often used to constrain volume changes within magma chambers, as well as constrain location and depth, but such models are incapable of calculating total magma storage. For example, during the 2012 unrest period at Santorini volcano, approximately 0.021 km³ of new magma entered a shallow chamber residing at around 4 km below the surface. This type of event is not unusual, and is in fact a necessary condition for the formation of a long-lived shallow chamber, of which Santorini must possess. The period of unrest ended without culminating in eruption, i.e the amount of magma which entered the chamber was insufficient to break the chamber and force magma further towards the surface. We combine previously published data on the volume of recent eruptions at Santorini together with geodetic measurements. Measurements of dykes within the caldera wall provide an estimate of the volume of magma transported during eruptions, assuming the dyke does not become arrested. When the combined volume of a dyke and eruption are known (V_e) they can be used to estimate using fracture mechanics principles and poro-elastic constraints the size of an underlying shallow magma chamber. We present field measurements of dykes within Santorini caldera and provide an analytical method to estimate the volume of magma contained underneath Santorini caldera. In addition we postulate the potential volume of magma required as input from deeper sources to switch the shallow magma chamber from an equilibrium setting to one where the pressure inside the chamber exceeds the surrounding host rocks tensile strength, a condition necessary to form a dyke and a possible eruption.