What are the Historical and Future Impacts of Temperature Variability on Thermoelectric Power Plant Performance?

Abstract:

Current literature hypothesize that climate change-driven temperature increases will negatively affect the power production capacity of thermoelectric power plants, which currently produce ~88% of electricity used in the United States. This impact can occur through 1) warm cooling water that reduces the quantity of heat removed from the once-through (open-loop) steam system, 2) increased air temperature and/or humidity that decrease the amount of heat absorption in cooling towers/ponds of wet-recirculating (closed-loop) plants, and 3) environmental protection regulations that impose restrictions on both cooling water withdrawal volume and temperature of discharge. However, despite the widespread consensus that temperature and power generation are negatively related, different models yield a range of results and the magnitude of effects is uncertain. In this study, we test current literature's model predictions using historical data by assembling and analyzing a database of relevant parameters from distinct sources. We examine how daily and seasonal changes in cooling water, ambient air, and wet bulb temperatures have historically impacted coal and natural gas power plants in the U.S., focusing on 39 plants over a period up to 14 years. This allows us to assess how future changes in temperatures may affect generation. Our results suggest that water and ambient air temperatures have a lower impact on thermoelectric plant performance than previously predicted. Moreover, we find that recirculating power plants are more resilient to temperature variability than are once-through plants.