Climate Change Intensification of Horizontal Water Vapor Transport in CMIP5

Abstract:

The global water cycle is hypothesized to intensify with a warming Earth’s atmosphere. To determine associated hydrological changes, most previous research has used precipitation scenarios without considering changes to the horizontal water vapor transport (IVT). As few studies have analyzed the IVT, and given that many extreme precipitation and flood events are driven by intense water vapor transport, it is the aim of this study to investigate projected changes to global IVT. Furthermore, this approach can identify climatological changes to the IVT between water source and sink regions.

Using 22 global circulation models from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) we evaluate, globally, the mean, standard deviation, and the 95^th percentile of IVT from the historical simulations (1979–2005) and two emissions scenarios (2073–2099); representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This analysis is undertaken for December, January, and February (Boreal winter); and for June, July, and August (Austral winter).

The CMIP5 historical multi-model mean has good agreement with the fields from the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis, which provides confidence in the models’ signal. In the future, under more extreme emissions (RCP8.5), multi-model mean IVT increases by 30–40% in the North Pacific and North Atlantic storm tracks and in the equatorial Pacific Ocean trade winds. The Arctic region has the largest relative IVT increase especially in Boreal winter. Analysis of low-altitude moisture and winds suggest that these projected changes are mainly due to higher atmospheric water vapor content.