The Influence of Tropical Forcing on Westerly Disturbances: Implications for Extreme Precipitation in High Asia

Abstract:

Extratropical cyclones, including winter westerly disturbances (WD) over central Asia, are fundamental features of the atmosphere that redistribute energy, momentum, and moisture from global to regional scales. Within the Karakoram and western Himalaya (KH), snowfall from only a few WD each winter maintains the region’s snowpack and its vast network of glaciers, which seasonally melt to sustain water resources for downstream populations across Asia. WD activity and subsequent precipitation in the mountains are influenced by global atmospheric variability and tropical-extratropical interactions. This research explores the independent influences of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation on WD and extreme precipitation events in the KH.

On interannual time-scales, El Niño suppresses convection in the Indian Ocean and induces a Rossby wave response over Southwest Asia that is linked with enhanced dynamical forcing of WD and available moisture content. Consequently, extreme orographic precipitation events are more frequent during El Niño than La Niña or neutral conditions. A similar spatial pattern of tropical diabatic heating anomalies is produced by the MJO at intraseasonal scales. In comparison to El Niño, the Rossby wave response to MJO activity is less spatially uniform over southwest Asia and exists on a much shorter time-scale. Consequently, this mode’s relationship with WD behavior and KH precipitation is more complex. Phases of the MJO propagation cycle that favor the dynamical enhancement of WD simultaneously suppress available moisture over southwest Asia, and vice versa. As a result, extreme precipitation events in the KH occur with similar frequency in most phases of the MJO, however, the relative importance of the dynamic and thermodynamic components of WD to orographic precipitation in the KH transitions as the MJO propagates. These findings give insight into the dynamics and predictability of extreme precipitation events in the KH through their relationship with global atmospheric variability, and are an important consideration for Asia’s water resources in a changing climate.