Improving and Assessing Aircraft-based Greenhouse Gas Emission Rate Measurements at Indianapolis as part of the INFLUX project.

Abstract:

Since the Copenhagen accord in 2009, several countries have affirmed their commitment to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The United States and Canada committed to reduce their emissions by 17% below 2005 levels, by 2020, Europe by 14% and China by ~40%. To achieve such targets, coherent and effective strategies in mitigating atmospheric carbon emissions must be implemented in the next decades. Whether such goals are actually achieved, they require that reductions are "measurable", "reportable", and "verifiable”. Management of greenhouse gas emissions must focus on urban environments since ~74% of CO₂ emissions worldwide will be from cities, while measurement approaches are highly uncertain (~50% to >100%). The Indianapolis Flux Experiment (INFLUX) was established to develop, assess and improve top-down and bottom-up quantifications of urban greenhouse gas emissions. Based on an aircraft mass balance approach, we performed a series of experiments focused on the improvement of CO₂, CH₄ and CO emission rates quantification from Indianapolis, our final objective being to drastically improve the method overall uncertainty from the previous estimate of 50%. In November-December 2014, we conducted nine methodologically identical mass balance experiments in a short period of time (24 days, one downwind distance) for assumed constant total emission rate conditions, as a means to obtain an improved standard deviation of the mean determination. By averaging the individual emission rate determinations, we were able to obtain a method precision of 17% and 16% for CO₂ and CO, respectively, at the 95%C.L. CH₄ emission rates are highly variable day to day, leading to precision of 60%. Our results show that repetitive sampling can enable improvement in precision of the aircraft top-down methods through averaging.