Techniques that Link Extreme Events to the Large Scale, Applied to California Heat Waves

Abstract:

Understanding the mechanisms how Californian Central Valley (CCV) summer extreme hot spells develop is very important since the events have major impacts on the economy and human safety. Results from a series of CCV heat wave studies will be presented, emphasizing the techniques used. Key larger scale elements are identified statistically that are also consistent with synoptic and dynamic understanding of what must be present during extreme heat. Beyond providing a clear synoptic explanation, these key elements have high predictability, in part because soil moisture has little annual variation in the heavily-irrigated CCV. In turn, the predictability naturally leads to an effective tool to assess climate model simulation of these heat waves in historical and future climate scenarios. (Does the model develop extreme heat for the correct reasons?) Further work identified that these large scale elements arise in two quite different ways: one from expansion southwestward of a pre-existing heat wave in southwest Canada, the other formed in place from parcels traversing the North Pacific. The pre-existing heat wave explains an early result showing correlation between heat waves in Sacramento California, and other locations along the US west coast, including distant Seattle Washington. CCV heat waves can be preceded by unusually strong tropical Indian Ocean and Indonesian convection, this partial link may occur through an Asian subtropical jet wave guide. Another link revealed by diagnostics is a middle and higher latitude source of wave activity in Siberia and East Asia that also leads to the development of the CCV heat wave. This talk will address as many of these results and the tools used to obtain them as is reasonable within the available time.