Greenhouse gas impacts of natural gas: Influence of deployment choice, methane leak rate, and methane GWP

Abstract:

Growing supplies of natural gas have heightened interest in the net impacts of natural gas on climate. Although its production and consumption result in greenhouse gas emissions, natural gas most often substitutes for other fossil fuels whose emission rates may be higher. Because natural gas can be used throughout the sectors of the energy economy, its net impacts on greenhouse gas emissions will depend not only on the leak rates of production and distribution, but also on the use for which natural gas is substituted.

Here, we present our estimates of the net greenhouse gas emissions impacts of substituting natural gas for other fossil fuels for five purposes: light-duty vehicles, transit buses, residential heating, electricity generation, and export for electricity generation overseas. Emissions are evaluated on a fuel cycle basis, from production and transport of each fuel through end use combustion, based on recent conditions in the United States. We show that displacement of existing coal-fired electricity and heating oil furnaces yield the largest reductions in emissions. The impact of compressed natural gas replacing petroleum-based vehicles is highly uncertain, with the sign of impact depending on multiple assumptions. Export of liquefied natural gas for electricity yields a moderate amount of emissions reductions. We further show how uncertainties in upstream emission rates for natural gas and in the global warming potential of methane influence the net greenhouse gas impacts. Our presentation will make the case that how natural gas is deployed is crucial to determining how it will impact climate.