Possible revisions in reservoir operation rules as an adaptation to climate change assessed by a global hydrological model with anthropogenic activities and a state-of-the-art river routing model

Abstract:

In the past decade, several advances have been made in incorporating anthropogenic impacts such as reservoir operation in global hydrological models. However, detailed examination of their performance in regional or large river basins is still lacking. The Chao Phraya River Basin in Thailand is a good site for a case study because of the availability of detailed and long-term hydrological records which include the operation of two huge reservoirs, the Bhumibol and Sirikit Reservoirs, in the basin.

The ensemble means of the simulation results using eight bias-corrected CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs), selected based on the availability of the atmospheric forcing inputs needed in a water balance model with human activities, the H08 model, under two representative concentration path scenarios (RCP), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for the near future from 2041 to 2059 were compared with the base period simulation from 1981 to 1999.

The estimates projected an increase in runoff of 10-15% in RCP4.5 and 40-50% in RCP8.5. While the change in dry season ranges from -10mm to 10mm, the wet season runoff could increase by as much as 160mm in RCP8.5. Hence, the frequency of reservoir emptying will decrease while spilling will increase by as much as 5 times of that of the base period in RCP8.5. In RCP4.5, the frequency of reservoir emptying will not significantly change while spilling will most likely double. Consequently, flooding in the basin will be more frequent and more severe. It was found that the mean inundated area downstream of the two reservoirs, simulated by CaMa-Flood, will increase by approximately 30% in RCP4.5 and about 130% in RCP8.5. At flood inundation depth greater than 1.00m, flooded area will increase by about 95% and 460% in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Possible reservoir operation rules adapting to these changes are examined to minimize flooded area and inundation depth in the downstream area, and to avoid full water levels of the reservoirs. It is demonstrated how the use of an advanced river routing with a hydrological model that includes anthropogenic effects can be useful in elucidating the changes in water management which might be necessary in order to adapt to the changing climate.