How Much Leakage Renders the Greenhouse Gas Footprint of Natural Gas Equivalent to Coal?

Abstract:

Under ideal circumstances, generating electricity from natural gas releases approximately half the carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions of coal. However, because the primary component of natural gas (i.e., methane) is a potent greenhouse gas, accounting for leakage is crucial when considering natural gas as a bridge fuel. This presentation answers the question: How much leakage renders the greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint of natural gas equivalent to coal? To answer this question, we present a simple model that assumes the GHG footprint for each fuel is the sum of emissions from (1) electricity generation and (2) natural gas leakage. Emissions resulting from electricity generation are taken from published life-cycle assessments (LCAs). Emissions from natural gas leakage are estimated assuming that natural gas is 80% methane, which is converted to carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) global warming potential (GWP). One complication in using the GWP is its dependence on time horizon, where shorter time horizons penalize methane emissions more, and longer time horizons less. Specifically, the IPCC considers time horizons of 20, 100 and 500 years for comparison between the differing greenhouse gases. To explicitly account for the effect of time horizon, the results presented here are shown on a straightforward plot of GHG footprint versus time horizon for natural gas leakage rates of 0, 1, 2, 4, and 8%. This plot shows that natural gas leakage of 2.0% or 4.8% eliminates half of natural gas’s GHG footprint advantage over coal at 20- or 100-year time horizons, respectively. Leakage of 3.9% or 9.1% completely eliminates the GHG footprint advantage over coal at 20- and 100-year time horizons, respectively. Results indicate that leakage control is essential for the electricity generated from the combustion of natural gas to create a smaller GHG footprint than the electricity generated from the combustion of coal.