A Statistical Study of Total Electron Content Changes in the Ionosphere Prior to Earthquake Occurrences

Abstract:

There are many published reports of anomalous changes in the ionosphere prior to large earthquakes. However, whether or not these ionospheric changes are reliable precursors that could be useful for earthquake prediction is controversial within the scientific community. To test a possible statistical relationship between the ionosphere and earthquakes, we compare changes in the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere with occurrences of M≥6.0 earthquakes globally for a multiyear period. We use TEC data from a global ionosphere map (GIM) and an earthquake list declustered for aftershocks. For each earthquake, we look for anomalous changes in TEC within ±30 days of the earthquake time and within 2.5° latitude and 5.0° longitude of the earthquake location (the spatial resolution of GIM). Our preliminary analysis, using global TEC and earthquake data for 2002-2010, has not found any statistically significant changes in TEC prior to earthquakes. Thus, we have found no evidence that would suggest that TEC changes are useful for earthquake prediction. Our results are discussed in the context of prior statistical and case studies. Namely, our results agree with Dautermann et al. (2007) who found no relationship between TEC changes and earthquakes in the San Andreas fault region. Whereas, our results disagree with Le et al. (2011) who found an increased rate in TEC anomalies within a few days before global earthquakes M≥6.0.