Critical Aspects of the Coastal Drought Index: Length of Salinity Data Record and Ecological Response Data

Abstract:

The phenomenon of coastal drought has a different dynamic from upland droughts that are typically characterized by agricultural, hydrologic, meteorological, and(or) socio-economic impacts. Because of the uniqueness of drought impacts on coastal ecosystems, a coastal drought index (CDI) that uses existing salinity datasets for sites in South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida was developed using an approach similar to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). CDIs characterizing the 1- to 24-month salinity conditions were developed and the evaluation of the CDI indicates that the index can be used for different estuary types (for example, brackish, olioghaline, or mesohaline), for regional comparison between estuaries, and as an index for wet conditions (high freshwater inflow) in addition to drought conditions. Unlike the SPI where long-term precipitation datasets of 50 to 100 years are available for computing the index, there are a limited number of salinity data sets of greater than 10 or 15 years for computing the CDI. To evaluate the length of salinity record necessary to compute the CDI, a 29-year dataset was resampled into 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year interval datasets. Comparison of the CDI for the different periods of record show that the range of salinity conditions in the 10-, 15-, and 20-year datasets were similar and results were a close approximation to the CDI computed by using the full period of record. The CDI computed with the 5-year dataset had the largest differences with the CDI computed with the 29-year dataset but did provide useful information on coastal drought and freshwater conditions.

An ongoing National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) drought early warning project in the Carolinas is developing ecological linkages to the CDI and evaluating the effectiveness of the CDI as a prediction tool for adaptation planning for future droughts. However, identifying potential coastal drought response datasets is a challenge. Coastal drought is a relatively new concept and existing datasets may not have been collected or understood as “drought response” datasets. We have considered drought response datasets including tree growth and liter fall, harmful algal blooms occurrence, Vibrio infection occurrence, shellfish harvesting data, and shark attacks.