Prediction of Water-level Changes and Water Use in the High Plains Aquifer from Radar Precipitation

Abstract:

Meteorological conditions are the primary driver of variations in the annual volume of groundwater pumped for irrigation from the High Plains aquifer (HPA), one of the largest aquifers of the world. Correlations between climatic indices (such as the Standardized Precipitation Index [SPI]) and mean annual water-level changes and water use have been shown to be valuable tools for assessing the aquifer’s response to various climatic scenarios in the semi-arid Kansas HPA (Whittemore et al., 2015). The correlations are generally better for a relatively large area (region) of the aquifer (such as that encompassed by a climatic division) because of the number of weather stations from which the climatic indices are computed. Correlations can be poor for county-sized and smaller areas (less than a few to several hundred km²) because of the low density of weather stations. Since 2005, radar precipitation data have been served online by the National Weather Service. The radar data are adjusted based on ground observations and are available at a spatial resolution of ~4x4 km. Correlations between radar precipitation and mean annual water-level changes and water use are comparable to those using SPI for the same region. Correlations using radar precipitation data are generally higher than with SPI computed for smaller areas, such as for counties and areas around individual monitoring wells. The optimum correlations for radar precipitation are determined using sums of different spans of monthly mean precipitation that include the irrigation season for the area of interest. Coefficients of determination, R², for radar precipitation versus annual water-level change and water use can exceed 0.8 for counties and monitoring well areas in the Kansas HPA. These correlations are being used to assess the impact of drought and water-use management on HPA sustainability. These correlations can also be used to assess the quality of the reported water-use data.