High Resolution Projection of Future Air Quality in South Asia

Abstract:

About one seventh of the world’s population living in South Asia faces the risk of severe air pollution due to high anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants. Recent studies have shown that exposure to present day air pollution in South Asia is sufficient enough to reduce the lifespan of about 660 million people by about 3 years, destroy food that can feed about 94 million poor people and cause economic loss of several billion dollars. This problem may worsen in the future as anthropogenic emissions are expected to increase due to rapid economic growth in South Asia, and climate change is expected to lead to atmospheric conditions conducive for the production and accumulation of air pollutants. In order to predict how air quality will change in South Asia in future (2050), we are conducting high resolution air quality simulations for the present day (2005-2014) and future (2046-2055) time periods using the Nested Regional Climate Model coupled with Chemistry (NRCM-Chem). The model domain covers entire South Asia at a horizontal grid spacing of 60 km with a nested domain over the densely populated and polluted Indo-Gangetic Plain region at a horizontal grid spacing of 12 km. The model results are being evaluated with available in situ and satellite based observations and the evaluation results show that NRCM-Chem model is able to capture several important features of the observed spatial and temporal distribution of key meteorological parameters and air pollutants. Initial model results show that annual average surface ozone and PM2.5 concentrations may increase by up to 15 ppbv and 25 µg m^-3, respectively with highest increase in the Indo-Gangetic Plain.