Improving the Fit of a Land-Surface Model to Data Using its Adjoint

Abstract:

Land-surface models (LSMs) are of growing importance in the world of climate prediction. They are crucial components of larger Earth system models that are aimed at understanding the effects of land surface processes on the global carbon cycle. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) is the land-surface model used by the UK Met Office. It has been automatically differentiated using commercial software from FastOpt, resulting in an analytical gradient, or ‘adjoint’, of the model. Using this adjoint, the adJULES parameter estimation system has been developed, to search for locally optimum parameter sets by calibrating against observations. adJULES presents an opportunity to confront JULES with many different observations, and make improvements to the model parameterisation. In the newest version of adJULES, multiple sites can be used in the calibration, to giving a generic set of parameters that can be generalised over plant functional types. We present an introduction to the adJULES system and its applications to data from a variety of flux tower sites. We show that calculation of the 2nd derivative of JULES allows us to produce posterior probability density functions of the parameters and how knowledge of parameter values is constrained by observations.