Detection and Attribution of Extreme Temperature and Drought using an Analogue-Based Dynamical Adjustment Technique

Abstract:

Recent studies highlight the importance of internal variability in decadal trends and variability of regional-scale temperature and precipitation. We use constructed circulation analogues for dynamical adjustment and apply it to the CESM Large Ensemble and long preindustrial control simulation to dissect regional-scale variability and trends into dynamic and thermodynamic, as well as forced and internal components. This allows us to diagnose contributing factors to specific events and to the general statistics of extreme temperature and drought in presence of a climate change signal. Further, we will discuss impacts of heat and drought in the framework of human exposure based on projected population distributions.