Numerical Modeling of Initial Slip and Poroelastic Effects of the 2012 Costa Rica Earthquake Using GPS Data

Abstract:

Remote sensing and geodetic measurements are providing a new wealth of spatially distributed, time-series data that have the ability to improve our understanding of co-seismic rupture and post-seismic processes in subduction zones. We formulate a Bayesian inverse problem to infer the slip distribution on the plate interface using an elastic finite element model and GPS surface deformation measurements. We present an application to the co-seismic displacement during the 2012 earthquake on the Nicoya Peninsula in Costa Rica, which is uniquely positioned close to the Middle America Trench and directly over the seismogenic zone of the plate interface. The results of our inversion are then used as an initial condition in a coupled poroelastic forward model to investigate the role of poroelastic effects on post-seismic deformation and stress transfer. From this study we identify a horseshoe-shaped rupture area with a maximum slip of approximately 2.5 meters surrounding a locked patch that is likely to release stress in the future. We model the co-seismic pore pressure change as well as the pressure evolution and resulting deformation in the months after the earthquake. The results of the forward model indicate that earthquake-induced pore pressure changes dissipate quickly near the surface, resulting in relaxation of the surface in the seven to ten days following the earthquake. Near the subducting slab interface, pore pressure changes are an order of magnitude larger and may persist for many months after the earthquake.