A Ground Observation Based Climatology and Forecasting of Winter Fog: Study over Ghaziabad, National Capital Region, India

Abstract:

Long term ground observations (1971-2010) have been analyzed over Ghaziabad city, National Capital Region to understand the characteristics of fog phenomenon and its relevance during winter months. We observed mean maximum fog occurrence during December (~23 days) followed by January (~21 days), November (~20 days), February (~14 days) and October (~11 days) respectively. A remarkable increase has been noticed in fog occurrence during October-to-February in last four decades. During 1971-80 to 2001-2010 the mean frequency of fog occurrence had increased by 205.5% in October month and 50.2% in November month. Similarly, mean frequency of fog occurrence increased by 51%, 97% and 119% during December, January and February respectively over the same period. We observed statistically significant increasing trend in fog occurrence from October-to-February during the study period at 95% confidence level. The magnitude of trend is 0.50, 0.47, 0.30, 0.39 and 0.37 for October, November, December, January and February, respectively. The magnitude of trend is highest in October but the occurrence frequency is highest in December. The forecast values obtained from ARIMA model indicates that the number of fog days is going to increase further during October-to-February in the forthcoming years. The data combined with knowledge of meteorology and topography suggested significant conclusions about increase in the fog events in the near future.