Validating a Dynamic Earthquake Model to Produce Realistic Ground Motion
Thursday, 17 December 2015
Poster Hall (Moscone South)
A dynamic earthquake model is validated by finding good agreement with an empirical ground motion prediction equation. The model replaces detailed deterministic processes on the fault with a stochastic emergent law. Initial stress on a fault plane is heterogeneous with a power-law spectrum that is self-similar. Rupture stops naturally. Rupture extent and moment are determined primarily by the specified lowest Fourier mode of initial stress. Higher modes are random with a self-similar spectrum that is tied to the amplitude of the lowest mode. Ten random realizations are calculated with a velocity structure for a hard rock site. The calculated mean response spectrum for M7 at a distance of 10 km agrees the with the GMPE of Boore et al (2013) within 0.25 of one standard deviation at periods from 0.3 seconds to 10 seconds. The agreement could be improved by using a more refined relation of the spatial stress spectrum to the amplitude of the lowest mode. The standard deviation of the calculated ground motion is somewhat smaller than the GMPE, but it depends on other rupture parameters and needs more investigation.