Multimodel estimates of premature human mortality due to intercontinental transport of air pollution

Abstract:

Numerous modeling studies indicate that emissions from one continent influence air quality over others. Reducing air pollutant emissions from one continent can therefore benefit air quality and health on multiple continents. Here, we estimate the impacts of the intercontinental transport of ozone (O₃) and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) on premature human mortality by using an ensemble of global chemical transport models coordinated by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP). We use simulations of 20% reductions of all anthropogenic emissions from 13 regions (North America, Central America, South America, Europe, Northern Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Former Soviet Union, Middle East, East Asia, South Asia, South East Asia, Central Asia, and Australia) to calculate their impact on premature mortality within each region and elsewhere in the world. To better understand the impact of potential control strategies, we also analyze premature mortality for global 20% perturbations from five sectors individually: power and industry, ground transport, forest and savannah fires, residential, and others (shipping, aviation, and agriculture). Following previous studies, premature human mortality resulting from each perturbation scenario is calculated using a health impact function based on a log-linear model for O₃ and an integrated exposure response model for PM_2.5 to estimate relative risk. The spatial distribution of the exposed population (adults aged 25 and over) is obtained from the LandScan 2011 Global Population Dataset. Baseline mortality rates for chronic respiratory disease, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lung cancer are estimated from the GBD 2010 country-level mortality dataset for the exposed population. Model results are regridded from each model’s original grid to a common 0.5°x0.5° grid used to estimate mortality. We perform uncertainty analysis and evaluate the sensitivity of mortality estimates to a low-concentration threshold for ozone and a log-linear risk model for PM_2.5. Our results allow us to identify the contributions of emissions from different source regions and sectors to air pollutant concentrations and premature human mortality in each region.