Statistical comparison of inter-substorm timings in global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) and observations

Abstract:

Magnetospheric substorms are events in which energy stored in the magnetotail is released into the auroral zone and into the downstream solar wind. Because of the complex, nonlinear, and possibly chaotic nature of the substorm energy release mechanism, it may be extremely difficult to forecast individual substorms in the near term. However, the inter-substorm timing (the amount of time elapsed between substorms) can be reproduced in a statistical sense, as was demonstrated by Freeman and Morley (2004) using their Minimal Substorm Model (MSM), a simple solar-wind driven model with the only free parameter being a recurrence time.

The goal of the present work is to reproduce the observed distribution of inter-substorm timings with a global MHD model. The period of 1-31 January 2005 was simulated using the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), driven by solar wind observations. Substorms were identified in the model output by synthesizing surface magnetometer data and by looking for tailward-moving plasmoids.

Substorms identified in the MHD model are then compared with observational data from the Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE) spacecraft, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) geostationary satellite energetic particle data, and surface magnetometer data.

For each dataset (MHD model and observations), we calculate the substorm occurrence rate, and for the MHD model we additionally calculate the timing error of the substorm onsets relative to the observed substorms. Finally, we calculate distribution functions for the inter-substorm timings in both the observations and the model. The results of this analysis will guide improvements to the MHD-based substorm model, including the use of Hall MHD and embedded particle in cell (EPIC), leading to a better reproduction of the observed inter-substorm timings and an improved understanding of the underlying physical processes.

References
M. P. Freeman and S. K. Morley. A minimal substorm model that explains the observed statistical distribution of times between substorms. Geophysical Research Letters, 31(12), 2004. doi: 10.1029/2004GL019989.