GC21C-1107
Northwestern Pacific Typhoon Intensity Controlled by Changes in Ocean Temperatures
Tuesday, 15 December 2015
Poster Hall (Moscone South)
Wei Mei1, Shang-Ping Xie1, Francois Primeau2, James C McWilliams3 and Claudia Pasquero4, (1)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (2)University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States, (3)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (4)University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Milan, Italy
Abstract:
Dominant climatic factors controlling the lifetime peak intensity of typhoons are determined from six decades of Pacific typhoon data. We find that upper ocean temperatures in the low-latitude northwestern Pacific (LLNWP) and sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific control the seasonal average lifetime peak intensity by setting the rate and duration of typhoon intensification, respectively. An anomalously strong LLNWP upper ocean warming has favored increased intensification rates and led to unprecedentedly high average typhoon intensity during the recent global warming hiatus period, despite a reduction in intensification duration tied to the central equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Continued LLNWP upper ocean warming as predicted under a moderate (i.e., RCP 4.5) climate change scenario is expected to further increase the average typhoon intensity by an additional 14% by 2100.
