Taxonomic and trophic-level differences in the climate sensitivity of seasonal events

Abstract:

Among-species differences in phenological responses to climate change are of sufficient magnitude to desynchronise key ecological interactions, threatening ecosystem function and services. To assess these threats, it is vital to quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here we apply a novel Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, quantifying among-species variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms sharing taxonomic affinities or trophic position. Despite this, we detected a systematic difference in the direction and magnitude, but not seasonal timing, of phenological climate sensitivity among trophic levels. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups and are projected to lag behind phenological changes at lower trophic levels, potentially making them at higher risk of disconnection with seasonal resources.