Long-term Evolution of Seismicity Rates in California Geothermal Fields

Abstract:

The temporal evolution of seismicity rates within geothermal fields provides important observational constraints on the ways in which rocks respond to natural and anthropogenic loading. We develop an iterative, regularized inversion procedure to partition the observed seismicity rate into two primary components: (1) the interaction seismicity rate due to earthquake-earthquake triggering, and (2) the time-varying background seismicity rate controlled by other time-dependent stresses, including anthropogenic forcing. We parameterize our seismicity model using an Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) framework with a background seismicity rate that varies smoothly with time. We apply our methodology to study long-term changes in seismicity rates at the Geysers and Salton Sea geothermal fields in California. At the Geysers, we find that the background seismicity rate is highly correlated with fluid injection. Seismicity at the Geysers has experienced a rate increase of approximately 50% since year 2000 and exhibits strong seasonal fluctuations, both of which can be explained by changes in fluid injection following the completion of the Santa Rosa pipeline. At the Salton Sea, the background seismicity rate has remained relatively stable since 1990, with short-term fluctuations that are not obviously modulated by fluid fluxes related to the operation of the geothermal field. The differences in the field-wide seismicity responses of the Geysers and Salton Sea to geothermal plant operation may reflect differences in in-situ reservoir conditions and local tectonics, indicating that induced seismicity may not be solely a function of fluid injection and withdrawal.