Predictors of River Ice Breakup Severity on the Yukon River in Interior Alaska: an Examination of the Past 15 Years

Abstract:

On the major interior rivers of Alaska, spring river ice breakup is the single largest annual flood threat and can result in fatalities in addition to millions of dollars of damages. Unlike freeze up, which is a gradual, months-long progression, breakup is a quick process during which an entire winters worth of ice lifts and moves downstream in a short time frame (hours to days). Breakup types range between thermal and dynamic. A thermal breakup is relatively slow; ice degrades in place before moving downstream. A dynamic breakup is quicker; the ice is relatively strong before the breakup front moves past. Severe breakup flooding is typically a result of a dynamic breakup. Because the ice has not yet deteriorated, large, strong sheets of ice become jammed on islands, river bends, or other ice sheets, creating an ice jam. The water levels behind an ice jam can rise rapidly and with little warning.

The goal of this study is to better understand predictors of breakup flood severity on the Upper and Middle Yukon River; between Eagle and Nulato, Alaska. We examine end of winter snowpack, ESRL Temperature Reanalysis data, and breakup-related flood observations from 2000 to 2015. Experience has shown that those years which have a large end of winter snowpack and a rapid spring warm-up have an above average chance of flooding, but this study seeks to expand on that knowledge base. What about years where only one of those factors (quick warm up or large snowpack) is present? Also, are there cases of years where the April antecedent conditions were similar, but the outcome of breakup was different? Why? Is flooding at a certain location an indicator that there will be flooding at another location downstream? This study is an in-depth examination of the past 15 years of breakup on the Yukon. A better understanding of these past events will lead to greater skill at predicting future events, and a better service for our stakeholders.