A BRAZILIAN VULNERABILITY INDEX TO NATURAL DISASTERS OF DROUGHT - IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Abstract:

Droughts are characterized as one of the main types of natural disasters that occur in Brazil. During the 1991-2012, droughts affected more than 14 million Brazilians, so that the concern for the following decades is about the potential impacts triggered by climate change. To analyze the vulnerability of the Brazilian municipalities to drought disasters, we have assessed the effects of climate change to droughts until the end of 21th century. A composite index was created based on three different dimensions: i) Exposure, represented by climate anomalies related to the drought process, such as changes in accumulated rainfall averages, interannual variability of rainfall, and the frequency and magnitude of severe droughts (measured by the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index); ii) Sensitivity, encompassing socioeconomic, demographic, land use and water management data; iii) Adaptive Capacity, consisting of socioeconomic and institutional data from Brazilian municipalities, such as the Human Development Index (HDI), social inequality (Gini index) and illiteracy rate. The climate variables used in this study are results from simulations of the Regional Climate Model Eta (with a downscaling of 20km spatial resolution) nested with two global climate models (HadGEM ES and MIROC 5) and was provided by National Institute for Space Research. The baseline period was 1961-1990 and future periods was 2011-2040; 2041-2070 and 2071-2099. For the simulations of future climate it was used the 4.5 and 8.5 IPCC/AR5 RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios. All variables used in this study was handled, exploited and related in a Geographic Information System (GIS). The methodology allowed the identification of vulnerability hotspots, the targeting of adaptation strategies and the development of public policy to minimize the potential impacts of future droughts. The final results (see attached image) indicate that the most vulnerable regions are located in the Midwest, in the northeastern Brazilian semi-arid and also on western Amazon.