The Asian monsoon’s role in atmospheric heat transport responses to orbital and millennial-scale climate change

Abstract:

Recent studies have provided a framework for understanding the zonal-mean position of the tropical rain belt by documenting relationships between rain belt latitude and atmospheric heat transport across the equator (Donohoe et al., 2013). Modern seasonal and interannual variability in globally-averaged rain belt position (often referred to as ‘ITCZ position’) reflects the interhemispheric heat balance, with the rain belt’s displacement toward the warmer hemisphere directly proportional to atmospheric heat transport into the cooler hemisphere. Model simulations suggest that rain belt shifts are likely to have obeyed the same relationship with interhemispheric heat transport in response to past changes in orbital parameters, ice sheets, and ocean circulation. This relationship implies that even small (±1 degree) shifts in the mean rain belt require large changes in hemispheric heat budgets, placing tight bounds on mean rain belt shifts in past climates.

This work has primarily viewed tropical circulation in two dimensions, as a pair of zonal-mean Hadley cells on either side of the rain belt that are displaced north and south by perturbations in hemispheric energy budgets, causing the atmosphere to transport heat into the cooler hemisphere. Here we attempt to move beyond this zonal-mean perspective, motivated by arguments that the Asian monsoon system, rather than the zonal-mean circulation, plays the dominant role in annual-mean heat transport into the southern hemisphere in the modern climate (Heaviside and Czaja, 2012; Marshall et al., 2014). We explore a range of climate change experiments, including simulations of North Atlantic cooling and mid-Holocene climate, to test whether changes in interhemispheric atmospheric heat transport are primarily driven by the mean Hadley circulation, the Asian monsoon system, or other regional-scale atmospheric circulation changes. The scalings that this work identifies between Asian monsoon changes and atmospheric heat transport help to provide quantitative insights into Asian monsoon variability in past climates.

References cited:

Donohoe, A. et al., (2013) Journal of Climate 26, 3597–3618.

Heaviside, C. and Czaja, A. (2012) Quart. J. Royal Met. Soc. 139, 2181–2189.

Marshall, J. et al., (2014) Climate Dynamics 42, 1967-1979.