An Air Temperature Cloud Height Precipitation Phase Determination Scheme for Surface Based Modeling

Abstract:

Many hydrological and ecological models use simple surface temperature threshold equations rather than coupling with a complex meteorological model to determine if precipitation is rain or snow. Some comparative studies have found, the most common rain/snow threshold variable, air temperature to have more precipitation phase error than dew-point or wet-bulb temperature, which account for the important secondary role of humidity in the melting and sublimation processes. However, just like surface air temperature, surface humidity is often effected by soil conditions and vegetation and is therefore not always representative of the atmospheric humidity precipitation falls through. A viable alternative to using surface humidity as a proxy for atmospheric moisture would be to adjust the rain snow threshold for changes in cloud height. The height of a cloud base above the ground gives the depth of an unsaturated layer. An unsaturated atmospheric layer should have much different melting and sublimation rates than a saturated cloud layer. Therefore, rain and snow percentages at a given surface air temperature should change with the height of the lowest cloud base.

This study uses hourly observations from 12 U.S. manually augmented meteorological stations located in the Great Plains and Midwest upwind or away from major water bodies in relatively flat areas in an attempt to limit geographical influences. The surface air temperature threshold for the ground to 200 feet (under 100m) was 0.0°C, 0.6°C for 300-600 feet (100-200m), 1.1°C for 700-1200 feet (300-400m), 1.7°C for 1300-2000 feet (500-600m), and 2.2°C for 2100-3300 feet (700-1000m). Total precipitation error for these cloud height air temperature thresholds reduced the error from the single air temperature threshold 1.1°C by 15% from 14% to 12% total error between -2.2°C and 3.9°C. These air temperature cloud height thresholds resulted in 1.5% less total error than the dew-point temperature threshold 0.0°C, and was within 0.2% of the wet-bulb temperature threshold 0.6°C. This supports the use of cloud base heights with surface air temperature thresholds for rain/snow determination, and gives a useful option to the use of wet-bulb temperatures, which are often not reported and may not be calculated if air pressure or relative humidity measurements are not available.