Exploring Potential Foreshocks on Highly Compressed Patches in a Rate-and-State Fault Model

Abstract:

On both natural and laboratory faults, some mainshocks are preceded by foreshocks. Such foreshocks may be triggered by aseismic processes of the mainshock nucleation at fault heterogeneities such as bumps, as inferred in some laboratory experiments. We explore a rate-and-state fault model in which potential foreshocks occur on patches of elevated normal compression (by a factor of 5 to 10) within a larger velocity-weakening (VW) region, using 3D numerical simulations of long-term earthquake sequences and aseismic slip.

We find that this model produces isolated microseismicity during the nucleation of a larger-scale seismic event, under the following conditions: (i) Patch diameter D is comparable to or larger than the patch nucleation size h^*_patch; (ii) D is much smaller than the nucleation size h^*_main for the larger-scale VW region; otherwise, a patch-hosted event simply starts the larger-scale event; (iii) the patches are sufficiently separated to prevent them triggering each other nearly instantaneously. Hence the nucleation sizes h^*_main and h^*_patch need to be substantially different, by a factor of around 10 in our simulations so far, and potentially much more.

The aforementioned separation of scales can be achieved by assigning high levels of compression on the patches. However, one would expect unrealistically large stress drops for events on such patches. Remarkably, in this model, we find that the stress drops of the patch-hosted events are reasonable and roughly constant, despite a wide variation in the patch compression, due to patch ruptures extending into the surrounding VW region. Furthermore, for D close to h^*_patch, a substantial part of the stress change on the patch occurs aseismically. Our current work is directed towards quantifying and explaining these trends, as well as exploring whether the microseismicity occurring on highly compressed patches due to nucleation-induced creep has any observable differences from other events.